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<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<title>Theories of International Mobility and the Incorporation of Immigrants</title>
<meta name="description" content="Slides for Economics of Migration class">
<meta name="author" content="John R.B. Palmer">
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<div class="slides">
<section>
<h2>Theories of International Mobility and the Incorporation of Immigrants</h2>
<h3>Class 5: Economic Effects of Immigration</h3>
<p><a href="http://johnrbpalmer.com">John Palmer</a></p>
</section>
<section data-background="images/Bundesarchiv_B_145_Bild-F040742-0013,_Hannover,_VW_Autowerk.jpg" data-state="footer_migrant_autoworkers2">
<div style="background-color: #ffffff" class="fragment">
<h2>Today's Main Question</h2>
<p>How does migration affect destination labor markets?</p>
</div>
<style>.footer_migrant_autoworkers2 footer:after { content: "Guest Workers in German VW Plant, 1973, Bundesarchiv, B 145 Bild-F040742-0013 / Schaack, Lothar / CC-BY-SA 3.0, Wikimedia Commons"; color:white;background-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.5); padding: 5px;}</style>
</section>
<section data-background="images/Bundesarchiv_B_145_Bild-F040736-0016,_Salzgitter,_VW_Autowerk.jpg" data-state="footer_migrant_autoworkers">
<div style="background-color: #ffffff" class="fragment">
<h3>Simplistic Positions</h3>
<p>Immigrants do jobs that natives don't want?</p>
<p>or</p>
<p>Immigrants steal native jobs and drive down wages?</p>
</div>
<style>.footer_migrant_autoworkers footer:after { content: "Guest Workers in German VW Plant, 1973, Bundesarchiv, B 145 Bild-F040736-0016 / Schaack, Lothar / CC-BY-SA 3.0, Wikimedia Commons"; color:white;background-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.5); padding: 5px;}</style>
</section>
<section data-background="images/New_store_opening.jpg" data-state="footer_consumers">
<div style="background-color: #ffffff" class="fragment">
<h3>Empirical question for neoclassical model</h3>
<p>Compliments or substitutes?</p>
</div>
<style>.footer_consumers footer:after { content: "Crowds at Littlewood's, Oswestry, UK, 1950, Charles, Geoff, Public Domain, Wikimedia Commons"; color:white;background-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.5); padding: 5px;}</style>
</section>
<section data-background="images/Google_page_brin.jpg" data-state="footer_brin">
<div style="background-color: #ffffff" class="fragment">
<h4>Production Function</h4>
$$Q = f(X_1, X_2,...,X_j, K)$$
<br>
<h4>Demand Function</h4>
$$r_l = f_l(X_1, X_2,...,X_j, K)$$
<br>
<h4>Supply Function</h4>
$$X_l = S_l(r_l, Y_l)$$
</div>
<style>.footer_brin footer:after { content: "Larry Page and Sergey Brin, 2008, Ehud Kenan, CC BY 2.0, Wikimedia Commons"; color:white;background-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.5); padding: 5px;}</style>
</section>
<section data-state="Borjas1989">
<h4>Really ???</h4>
<img class="stretch" src="images/borjas1989_q.png">
<style>.Borjas1989 footer:after { content: "Borjas 1989"; color:white;background-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.5); padding: 5px;}</style>
</section>
<section>
<h3>Homogeneous Labor</h3>
<img class="stretch" src="images/ecomig2-labor-SD-simple-supplyup.png">
</section>
<section>
<h3>Heterogeneous Labor</h3>
<img class="stretch" src="images/ecomig2-labor-SD-het-demand_shift.png">
</section>
<section data-background="images/immigrant_vendors.jpg" data-state="footer4">
<div style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, .95); padding:20px;">
<h3>Other Considerations</h3>
<ul>
<li>Natives may move</li>
<li>Immigrants buy things</li>
</ul>
</div>
<style>.footer4 footer:after { content: "Street Vendors in Rome, Adrian Pingstone, Public Domain, Wikimedia Commons"; color:white;background-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.5); padding: 5px;}</style>
</section>
<section data-background="images/immigrant_vendors.jpg" data-state="footer4">
<div style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, .95); padding:20px;">
<h3>Empirical Evidence</h3>
<ul>
<li>Any negative impact of immigration on natives appears to be small</li>
<li>Impact of immigration on immigrants is larger</li>
<li>Debate over distributional effects</li>
</ul>
</div>
<style>.footer4 footer:after { content: "Street Vendors in Rome, Adrian Pingstone, Public Domain, Wikimedia Commons"; color:white;background-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.5); padding: 5px;}</style>
</section>
<section data-background="images/immigrant_vendors.jpg" data-state="footer4">
<div style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, .95); padding:20px;">
<h3>Empirical Evidence: Problems</h3>
<ul>
<li>Hard to detect effects on low-skilled workers</li>
<li>Labor market influences locational choices</li>
</ul>
</div>
<style>.footer4 footer:after { content: "Street Vendors in Rome, Adrian Pingstone, Public Domain, Wikimedia Commons"; color:white;background-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.5); padding: 5px;}</style>
</section>
<section>
<h3>Mariel Boatlift</h3>
<iframe src="https://www.google.com/maps/embed?pb=!1m14!1m12!1m3!1d3134230.023046468!2d-83.78361909642062!3d24.30792526943851!2m3!1f0!2f0!3f0!3m2!1i1024!2i768!4f13.1!5e1!3m2!1sen!2ses!4v1603850543629!5m2!1sen!2ses" width="800" height="600" frameborder="0" style="border:0;" allowfullscreen="" aria-hidden="false" tabindex="0"></iframe>
</section>
<section data-state="Borjas2017">
<img class="stretch" src="images/borjas2017_f1.png">
<style>.Borjas2017 footer:after { content: "Borjas 2017"; color:white;background-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.5); padding: 5px;}</style>
</section>
<section>
<h4>John Brousek, Against Wind and Tide: A Cuban Odyssey (1981)</h4>
<iframe src="https://archive.org/embed/againstwindandtideacubanodyssey" width="640" height="480" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="true" mozallowfullscreen="true" allowfullscreen></iframe>
</section>
<section>
<h4>Marielitos in Miami</h4>
<ul>
<li>May-Sep 1980: ~125,000 Cubans arrive in Miami. About half stay permanently there, representing a 7% increase in labor force overall; 20% increase in Cuban labor force.</li>
<li>Small (several hundred) group of inmates from jails and mental health facilities but rumors of thousands.</li>
<li>Lower education, lower English, more male, lower occupational attainment and attachment than existing population</li>
<li>34% wage gap with other Cubans in Miami (18% if we control for education, experience and gender)</li>
</ul>
</section>
<section>
<h4>Marielitos in Miami</h4>
<ul>
<li>50% increase in homicide rate</li>
<li>3-day riot in which 13 people were killed, driven partly by labor market competition from Cuban refugees</li>
<li>unemployment rose from 5% to 7.1%</li>
</ul>
</section>
<section>
<h4>Marielitos in Miami</h4>
<p>Doesn't the rise in unemployment answer our question?</p>
<p>Why not?</p>
</section>
<section data-state="Card1990">
<h4><a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/001979399004300205">Card (1990)</a></h4>
<img class="stretch" src="images/card_table3.png">
<style>.Card1990 footer:after { content: "Card 1990"; color:white;background-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.5); padding: 5px;}</style>
</section>
<section data-state="Card1990">
<h4><a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/001979399004300205">Card (1990)</a></h4>
<img class="stretch" src="images/card_table4.png">
<style>.Card1990 footer:after { content: "Card 1990"; color:white;background-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.5); padding: 5px;}</style>
</section>
<section data-state="Card1990">
<h4><a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/001979399004300205">Card (1990)</a></h4>
<img class="stretch" src="images/card_table5.png">
<style>.Card1990 footer:after { content: "Card 1990"; color:white;background-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.5); padding: 5px;}</style>
</section>
<section data-state="Borjas2017">
<h4><a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0019793917692945">Borjas (2017)</a></h4>
<img class="stretch" src="images/borjas2017_f2.png">
</section>
<section data-state="Borjas2017">
<img class="stretch" src="images/borjas2017_f3a.png">
</section>
<section data-state="Borjas2017">
<img class="stretch" src="images/borjas2017_f3b.png">
</section>
<section data-state="Borjas2017">
<img class="stretch" src="images/borjas2017_f3c.png">
</section>
<section data-state="Borjas2017">
<img class="stretch" src="images/borjas2017_f4.png">
</section>
<section>
<p>Does this resolve the question?</p>
</section>
<section data-state="Clemens2019">
<h4><a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0019793918824597?casa_token=S6zCiIs49R0AAAAA%3ASD0mJMISnGPY6cSvrHH-ZRauAZfmkFUetwnqRXZTdxjUzjCMphG9YdQNhnITYKdBW1cY3v_S_1s7">Clemens & Hunt (2019)</a></h4>
<img class="stretch" src="images/clemens2019_text2.png">
<style>.Clemens2019 footer:after { content: "Clemens & Hunt 2019"; color:white;background-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.5); padding: 5px;}</style>
</section>
<section data-state="Clemens2019">
<h4><a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0019793918824597?casa_token=S6zCiIs49R0AAAAA%3ASD0mJMISnGPY6cSvrHH-ZRauAZfmkFUetwnqRXZTdxjUzjCMphG9YdQNhnITYKdBW1cY3v_S_1s7">Clemens & Hunt (2019)</a></h4>
<img class="stretch" src="images/clemens2019_text1.png">
<style>.Clemens2019 footer:after { content: "Clemens & Hunt 2019"; color:white;background-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.5); padding: 5px;}</style>
</section>
<section>
<p>Could this be producing a spurious result in Borjas' analysis?</p>
</section>
<section>
<ul>
<li>Arrival of low-income Black Haitian workers in Miami in 1980.</li>
<li>Census Bureau starts counting more low-skilled U.S. Black men in 1980 to correct prior under-coverage.</li>
<li>This involved counting lower-income Black people than previously counted.</li>
</ul>
</section>
<section data-state="Clemens2019">
<h4><a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0019793918824597?casa_token=S6zCiIs49R0AAAAA%3ASD0mJMISnGPY6cSvrHH-ZRauAZfmkFUetwnqRXZTdxjUzjCMphG9YdQNhnITYKdBW1cY3v_S_1s7">Clemens & Hunt (2019)</a></h4>
<img class="stretch" src="images/clemens2019_f1.png">
<style>.Clemens2019 footer:after { content: "Clemens & Hunt 2019"; color:white;background-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.5); padding: 5px;}</style>
</section>
<section data-state="Clemens2019">
<h4><a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0019793918824597?casa_token=S6zCiIs49R0AAAAA%3ASD0mJMISnGPY6cSvrHH-ZRauAZfmkFUetwnqRXZTdxjUzjCMphG9YdQNhnITYKdBW1cY3v_S_1s7">Clemens & Hunt (2019)</a></h4>
<img class="stretch" src="images/clemens2019_f2.png">
</section>
<section>
<h4>Monika Gosin, Disrupting a Racial Politics of Division: Black Voices on the 1980 Mariel Boatlift,
John Hope Franklin Center, Duke University (2020)</h4>
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ONGfKG2NEOI?start=874" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe></section>
<section>
<h4><a href="https://adamtooze.com/2017/12/09/americas-political-economy-double-life-mariel/">Tooze 2017</a></h4>
<ul>
<li>"The work of Card and Borjas is used to make general pronouncements about immigration policy, affecting tens of millions of people. But what do their rival results rest on?"</li>
</ul>
</section>
<section>
<h4><a href="https://adamtooze.com/2017/12/09/americas-political-economy-double-life-mariel/">Tooze 2017</a></h4>
<ul>
<li>"[T]he Mariel of the economists is constructed around labour force data and economic theories that are designed to enable statistical logic to be brought to bear. But due to the fixation on the identification of causation they require Mariel to be torn out of its context and figured as a “natural experiment” a truly “exogenous event”. Furthermore, when examined in detail the identification of the effects that economists are fixated on, requires a treatment of data that turns out to be a strange form of anecdotage. It involves the calculation of confidence intervals for samples of barely more than a handful of respondents."</li>
</ul>
</section>
</div>
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